Don’t go cold turkey – at least not when it comes to loosening the closures.
This is the message of a new study that uses mathematical modeling to show that governments should not just stop closing procedures for all at once for all, after slowing infection rates, unless they want to risk a rise in Coronavirus cases Threatening to overwhelm their health care system.
“Decision makers – pay attention to mathematics: getting out of closings requires a step-by-step approach to keeping the infection under control,” said Michael Bonsal, of the University of Oxford’s Mathematical Ecology Research group, who helped lead the study team.
Bonsal told CNN: “Without this interest, you run the risk of discouraging health systems from other waves of infection.”
Closing restrictions or “infection control strategies” differed from country to country and from country to country but include travel bans, school closures, work from home / staying at home and quarantine and isolation orders. It can reduce infection rates, and spread the infection over a longer period in an approach known as Curve flattening.
Thanks to the shutdown procedures, an estimated 60 million coronavirus infections have been prevented in the United States, and 285 million infections in China, according to Separate study Recently published in the journal Nature.
But closings involve huge emotional costs and have held back economies around the world, including pushing the United States officially into recession.
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