Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that's his problem
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Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that’s his problem

By Admin / June 7, 2020

Both polls show that Trump has a big difference between self-identified Republicans: 93% to Biden 5% (Monmouth) and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).

what is the point: Trump played a clear role during his presidency to appease the Republican base, and the poll indicates that this effort is clearly bearing fruit. Its base does not abandon it, even though its overall numbers remain weak.

Trump’s problem is that he has largely taken advantage of this reservoir of support.

Watch Trump and Biden polls face to face
After you make great effort To get the result in a primary against any competition, Trump wins just 95% of the Republican primaries in general. This is very similar to polls in a general election which places him in less than 95% of Republican votes. It will be difficult for him to go beyond that.
In fact, Trump has more support among Republican voters now than any Republican since at least 2000. You can see that in ABC News / Washington Post poll. Those, like Monmouth and NBC / Wall Street Journal, have Trump nearly 95% (94%), while Biden is remaining 4%.

Dating back to 2000, no Republican has ever been supported by more than 91% of Republicans at this point in ABC News / Washington Post polls. The regular Republican had 84% of Republicans behind him. Al Qaeda’s first strategy in that election was more logical than that of Trump.

(The historical nature of these numbers remains if implicitly independent Republicans.)

Trump may think he doesn’t need to change his strategies because he ignored the advice of most people and still wins in 2016. This is a mistake. Beyond the fact that there is good evidence that Trump He ran more than moderate Over his rule, Trump had more room to grow with Al Qaeda in 2016. Only 74% of self-identified Republicans scored in the ABC News / Washington Poll on this point – the lowest level for any Republican since 2000.

Where Trump is weak outside the Republican base. In the ABC / Washington Post (the numbers are similar for Monmouth and NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump is 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both are lower than any Republican at this point in the ABC News / Washington Post poll dating back to 2000.

In other words, there is far greater support for Trump outside the main Republican base. However, Trump does not seem interested in making this effort.

If Trump does not change things, he may find that the other’s rule is greater than his base. Biden wins more Democrats in average live polls (including NPR / PBS News Hour / Marist College PollThis week (94%) of Trump won the Republicans (92%). The average poll, as it was almost correct every year, measured more Democrats than Republicans in this country.

By continuing his primary strategy, Trump ensures that he will not see the bottom falling. However, he will actually find that accumulating the coalition needed to win will surpass the difficulty.

This story has been updated to include the results of a NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll Sunday.

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