Biden poll: former vice president made a breakthrough that Hillary Clinton never accomplished: 50% majority support
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Biden poll: former vice president made a breakthrough that Hillary Clinton never accomplished: 50% majority support

By Admin / June 8, 2020

In fact, if you look at the average Direct interview surveys Released since last Sunday, Biden managed to lose 50% (51%). That is, he has a majority at the present time. This is a major milestone that should not slow down.
As I indicated in the past, Trump’s return in 2016 has become much easier by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton was not close to 50%. The Average live interview survey Taken in June 2016 (when liberal Gary Johnson) was included Clinton by only 42%. None of these polls even hit them 50%. In fact, she never approached average surveys during the rest of the campaign.

When Trump closed the gap in the final days of the 2016 campaign, he had to persuade very few Clinton supporters to vote for him. Trump only had to get support from those who were reluctant or support a third-party candidate.

For the time being, Trump’s path will be difficult if not next to impossible to win if he does not recover the voters who are already with Biden.

Other historical examples are not very nice to Trump either. The only other competitor at this point that was at or around 50% was Jimmy Carter in 1976. He won.

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One of the presidents often referred to as Trump’s beacon of hope is Harry Truman. He is the current president who was lagging behind the margin of error at this point in his bid for a second term he returned to victory. Moreover, Truman was the only president he had Estimate negative net approval (Approval – Rejection) Less than -5 points at this stage of the campaign to return and win.

Here’s Trump’s problem: The average poll at this point was his Republican opponent, Truman Thomas Dewey, at 46%. So even as Biden outperformed Trump in these polls less than two points behind Dewey’s superiority over Truman (just nine points south), Biden gained about 5 points more than voters. Dewey simply did not have voters sticking to it in the same way Biden did at this point.

Indeed, Trump’s need to persuade those who are not already in the other camp is reflected in another way. His rejection rate in the poll is 54%. No other president at this stage of the polling period got a rating rejected this high before his chance to win a second term. Truman was 47%, with his approval level dropping at 39%. However, there was a majority of Americans who at least disagreed with it.

Trump proved in 2016 that he could challenge history. If he were to win a second term in 2020, Trump would have to win some.

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